revista presei 6 octombrie partea II-a

2009/10/06

Hotnews: VIDEO Alexander Khetaguri, ministrul energiei din Georgia: Cooperam cu Romania pentru cresterea securitatii energetice si furnizarea gazelor in statele est-europene

Alexander Khetaguri, ministrul energiei din Georgia sustine ca tara sa coopereaza cu Romania in privinta cresterii securitatii energetice si furnizarii gazelor in statele europene din zona Marii Caspice. Georgia este una dintre tarile de tranzit pentru gazele care vor fi furnizate prin conductele energetice alternative, destinate reducerii dependentei Europei fata de resursele energetice din Rusia. Practic, este ca un stat punte intre zona Caspica de unde vor fi livrate gazele prin conducta Nabucco spre statele europene

Proiectul Nabucco, in care este implicata si Romania, este sprijinit de Uniunea Europeana, ca o solutie alternativa la resursele energetice rusesti. In paralel, Moscova isi propune sa dezvolte impreuna cu Italia proiectul South Stream, vazut ca un concurent pentru Nabucco.

Proiectul Nabucco a fost conceput pentru a ocoli Rusia, iar proiectul similar al Moscovei, South Stream, a fost conceput pentru a ocoli Ucraina.

Gazoductul cu o lungime de 3.300 de kilometri ar trebui sa devina functional in 2014, costurile pentru finalizarea sa fiind estimate la 7,9 miliarde de euro. Potrivit proiectului, Nabucco va avea o capacitate de 31 de miliarde de metri cubi de gaz pe an, transportati din Marea Caspica pana in Austria, prin Turcia si Balcani, astfel incat sa ocoleasca Rusia.

Europa depinde in proportie de 25% de gazele importate din Rusia si a fost afectata in doua randuri, in plina iarna, de conflictul dintre Rusia si Ucraina, tara prin care tranziteaza 80% din volumele de gaz importate de Europa din Rusia.

Video

The Independent: The demise of the dollar

In a graphic illustration of the new world order, Arab states have launched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading

In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars.

The plans, confirmed to The Independent by both Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong, may help to explain the sudden rise in gold prices, but it also augurs an extraordinary transition from dollar markets within nine years.

The Americans, who are aware the meetings have taken place – although they have not discovered the details – are sure to fight this international cabal which will include hitherto loyal allies Japan and the Gulf Arabs. Against the background to these currency meetings, Sun Bigan, China’s former special envoy to the Middle East, has warned there is a risk of deepening divisions between China and the US over influence and oil in the Middle East. “Bilateral quarrels and clashes are unavoidable,” he told the Asia and Africa Review. “We cannot lower vigilance against hostility in the Middle East over energy interests and security.”

This sounds like a dangerous prediction of a future economic war between the US and China over Middle East oil – yet again turning the region’s conflicts into a battle for great power supremacy. China uses more oil incrementally than the US because its growth is less energy efficient. The transitional currency in the move away from dollars, according to Chinese banking sources, may well be gold. An indication of the huge amounts involved can be gained from the wealth of Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar who together hold an estimated $2.1 trillion in dollar reserves.

The decline of American economic power linked to the current global recession was implicitly acknowledged by the World Bank president Robert Zoellick. “One of the legacies of this crisis may be a recognition of changed economic power relations,” he said in Istanbul ahead of meetings this week of the IMF and World Bank. But it is China’s extraordinary new financial power – along with past anger among oil-producing and oil-consuming nations at America’s power to interfere in the international financial system – which has prompted the latest discussions involving the Gulf states.

Brazil has shown interest in collaborating in non-dollar oil payments, along with India. Indeed, China appears to be the most enthusiastic of all the financial powers involved, not least because of its enormous trade with the Middle East.

China imports 60 per cent of its oil, much of it from the Middle East and Russia. The Chinese have oil production concessions in Iraq – blocked by the US until this year – and since 2008 have held an $8bn agreement with Iran to develop refining capacity and gas resources. China has oil deals in Sudan (where it has substituted for US interests) and has been negotiating for oil concessions with Libya, where all such contracts are joint ventures.

Furthermore, Chinese exports to the region now account for no fewer than 10 per cent of the imports of every country in the Middle East, including a huge range of products from cars to weapon systems, food, clothes, even dolls. In a clear sign of China’s growing financial muscle, the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, yesterday pleaded with Beijing to let the yuan appreciate against a sliding dollar and, by extension, loosen China’s reliance on US monetary policy, to help rebalance the world economy and ease upward pressure on the euro.

Ever since the Bretton Woods agreements – the accords after the Second World War which bequeathed the architecture for the modern international financial system – America’s trading partners have been left to cope with the impact of Washington’s control and, in more recent years, the hegemony of the dollar as the dominant global reserve currency.

The Chinese believe, for example, that the Americans persuaded Britain to stay out of the euro in order to prevent an earlier move away from the dollar. But Chinese banking sources say their discussions have gone too far to be blocked now. “The Russians will eventually bring in the rouble to the basket of currencies,” a prominent Hong Kong broker told The Independent. “The Brits are stuck in the middle and will come into the euro. They have no choice because they won’t be able to use the US dollar.”

Chinese financial sources believe President Barack Obama is too busy fixing the US economy to concentrate on the extraordinary implications of the transition from the dollar in nine years’ time. The current deadline for the currency transition is 2018.

The US discussed the trend briefly at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh; the Chinese Central Bank governor and other officials have been worrying aloud about the dollar for years. Their problem is that much of their national wealth is tied up in dollar assets.

“These plans will change the face of international financial transactions,” one Chinese banker said. “America and Britain must be very worried. You will know how worried by the thunder of denials this news will generate.”

Iran announced late last month that its foreign currency reserves would henceforth be held in euros rather than dollars. Bankers remember, of course, what happened to the last Middle East oil producer to sell its oil in euros rather than dollars. A few months after Saddam Hussein trumpeted his decision, the Americans and British invaded Iraq.

Hotnwes: Monarhiile petroliere negociaza in secret cu China, Rusia, Japonia si Franta renuntarea la cotarea petrolului in dolari – surse

Statele arabe au lansat negocieri secrete cu China, Rusia si Franta pentru a elimina utilizarea dolarului in tranzactiile cu petrol, pana in 2018, relateaza The Independent, in editia electronica de marti, citand surse bancare din Golf, China si Hong Kong.

Monarhiile petroliere din Golf planuiesc – alaturi de China, Rusia, Japonia si Franta – sa stopeze dominatia dolarului in tranzactionarea aurului negru, care ar urma sa fie inlocuit cu un cos de monede format din yenul japonez, yuanul chinezesc, euro, aur si o noua moneda unificata a tarilor care fac parte din Consiliul de cooperare din Golf.

Intalniri secrete pe aceasta tema au avut deja loc la nivel de ministere de finante si de guvernatori de banci centrale din Rusia, China, Japonia si Brazilia. Aceste planuri, confirmate pentru The Independent de surse bancare din Golf, China si Hong Kong, ar putea explica majorarea brusca a cotatiilor la aur.

SUA si cabala internationala

Se asteapta ca americanii, care sunt la curent cu aceste negocieri, sa lupte impotriva acestei “cabale” internationale care include aliati traditionali precum tarile din Golf si Japonia. Sun Bigan, fostul emisar special al Chinei pentru Orieintul Mijlociu, a avertizat asupra riscului adancirii tensiunilor dintre China si SUA. “Conflictele bilaterale si ciocnirile sunt inevitabile”, a declarat el, pentru Asia and Africa Review.

Declaratiile reprezinta o predictie periculoasa a unui viitor razboi economic intre SUA si China pentru petrolul din Orientul Mijlociu, in conditiile in care Beijingul are nevoie de mai mult petrol decat SUA, deoarece economia sa este mai putin eficienta din punct de vedere energetic.

Brazilia s-a aratat interesata in desenarea unui plan prin care petrolul sa nu mai fie raportat la dolar, la fel ca si India. Dar China pare tara cea mai implicata in dezvoltarea acestui proiect.

China si interesele in industria petrolului

China importa 60% din petrolul sau, cea mai mare parte provenind din Orientul Mijlociu si din Rusia. Chinezii au obtinut concesiuni de campuri petrolifere in Irak – blocate de americani pana in acest an – iar din 2008 au semnat angajamente de 8 miliarde de dolari cu Iranul pentru a dezvolta capacitati de rafinare. China a incheiat afaceri in domeniul petrolului cu Sudan (unde a inlocuit interesele americane) si a demarat negocieri cu Libia.

Inca de la acordul de la Bretton Woods – care a pus bazele arhitecturii sistemului financiar international modern – partenerii comerciali ai SUA au fost obligati sa faca fata controlului exercitat de americani asupra dolarului si, in anii recenti, hegemoniei bancnotei verzi ca valuta internationala de rezerva.

In plus, China considera ca SUA au convins Marea Britanie sa ramana in afara Zonei Euro pentru a preveni o diminuare a rolului dolarului.

Marea Britanie va fi fortata sa adere la euro

Sursele citate sustin ca, in momentul de fata, discutiile sunt mult prea avansate pentru a mai putea fi blocate. “In cele din urma, Rusia va aduce in acest cos de monede si rubla”, a declarat un broker foarte influent din Hong Kong. “Britanicii sunt prinsi la mijloc si vor adera, in cele din urma, la euro. Nu au de ales, pentru ca nu vor putea folosi dolarul american”.

Sursele din mediul financiar chinezesc considera ca presedintele Barack Obama este prea ocupat de stabilizarea economiei americane pentru a se putea concentra asupra implicatiilor extraordinare pe care le va avea renuntarea la dolar in tranzactiile cu petrol, in termen de noua ani. Termenul actual pentru implementarea acestui plan este 2018.

Irakul si efectul renuntarii la dolar

Iranul a anuntat, la sfarsitul lunii trecute, ca rezervele valutare ale tarii vor fi plasate majoritar in euro, si nu in dolari. Iar bancherii isi amintesc, desigur, ce s-a intamplat cu ultimul producator din Orientul Mijlociu care a ales sa-si vanda aurul negru mai degraba in euro, decat in dolari, noteaza The Independent.

La o luna dupa ce Saddam Hussein anunta triumfal aceasta decizie, America si Marea Britanie au invadat Irakul.

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